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Only 48 hours prior to the New York race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange issued a bold forecast – not just who would win overall, and block by block. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in New York City, devoted more than ten years in left-leaning activism and has become a kind of local celebrity this year for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He published his extremely precise forecast map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while failed to predict the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. He has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he predicted (correctly) that Mamdani would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters leaned toward Cuomo, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Patterns and Unexpected Results

What was your election night?

I had to do that because they were dropping around 200,000 votes into the tally every few minutes! I was actually somewhat anxious at the beginning: Mamdani led the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but there were large groups of ballots added later and his lead went from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world where election day turned out kind of poorly for him, in which the opponent was going to end up essentially doubling his votes from the earlier contest. However the winner gained half a million votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He went out and massively expanded his base from the primary.

Expanding Support

Where did the mayor-elect get those extra votes from?

He assembled the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, it’s young, tenants and individuals facing cost pressures. He improved considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the earlier election. Plus he further maximized his base of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He built the coalition that progressives long aimed for: diverse, youthful, renters and people struggling with costs

There were also a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for the former president previously went for the progressive now. However it’s not that he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

A major development of the election was the record participation. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than anticipated. I thought it could go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, energized, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that was enough to win.

You forecasted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Right now it appears he’s favored to get over half. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still probably 200,000 votes uncounted as of Wednesday morning. So it’s not certain, but I think probable, and I wish he achieves it because then no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote completely collapsed.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any area. Not even Tottenville in the borough, which is like an 88% Trump neighborhood. That really was unexpected. The independent kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added many conservatives on the island with a high participation. I believe occurred significant tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it before Trump endorsed for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your often-discussed “commie corridor” – was support for Mamdani overwhelming in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed some weakening of the commie corridor in some areas like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. There, for example, the property owners and residents all went for Cuomo. So there existed some opposition. However no, largely the commie corridor is a key factor why Zohran won – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the election there was coverage on if Mamdani was gaining ground with the community. Any indication that he did?

There are areas with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his position on Israel definitely mattered in those places. Similarly in the moderate communities including Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they favored Cuomo. And also, you have Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in the borough, they were strongly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if there were major surprises here, but he did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the another locale with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will commie corridor become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that key figures from the left hail from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I’m sure that we’ll see additional examples – people will come from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

However I think that every city in America can have their own commie corridor. Cities are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – because youth reside there, tenancy is common and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the inequalities exist.