From Grudging Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A unexpected operation against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the country's president. Within a day, the foreign force declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a dangerous precedent. But behind the official statements, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: fast, dramatic and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general planned to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a new axis able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. But offering any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than law, determines results.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”