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On Sunday, the nation of CAR will undertake a significant quadruple election, including the presidential race, national assembly, and municipal offices.

A Crowded Presidential Field

Seven candidates are competing for the top office, including ex-premiers Anicet Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra. Both men were given approval to stand by the high court after initial bans. Dologuélé was the runner-up in the 2015 and 2020 votes, while Dondra briefly served under the incumbent.

Opposition Hopes and Public Discontent

The opposition hopes to tap into widespread discontent in a nation where conflict remains a daily reality. More than half a million people are internally displaced, with a comparable figure living as exiles in neighbouring countries.

"This is an chance to commend the significant progress of the country," said a senior UN diplomat, though he added that challenges persist.

The Incumbent's Path

Despite the challenges, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a one-time academic, is widely expected to secure another term. He first entered politics in 2008 when named prime minister, holding the post until a rebel coalition toppled the government in 2013, sparking a sectarian conflict.

After a turbulent three-year interim, his perceived impartiality from the warring factions powered his runoff win in 2016.

Security Concerns and Voting Challenges

There are fears that logistical problems and violence could disrupt the electoral process, especially in rural areas. The UN peacekeeping mission, Minusca, is providing protection and organizational aid that the state's crumbling infrastructure is unable to provide.

Additional problems include the electoral roll being published only online, a significant barrier in a nation with limited internet access. These issues have led to an opposition boycott and could, as noted by analysts, "exclude many of the population."

Stakes of a Third Term

Many citizens worry that another term for Touadéra—enabled by a 2023 charter change that abolished term limits and lengthened mandates—would mean expanded sway for foreign actors.

The president has relied on the private military group Wagner for personal security, and despite its founder's death, has resisted calls to integrate its fighters into a successor entity. In contrast, Rwanda has pursued a different approach, focusing on business interests within CAR.

Claims of National Disposal

Recent reports have stated the government evicted its own soldiers from a World Bank-funded training centre to accommodate a Rwandan agricultural project. A critical editorial charged the leadership of being "intent on sell off the nation bit by bit."

Amid a newly signed agreement with armed factions offering a glimmer of calm, the election proceeds under a cloud of doubt and external rivalry.